Tier9 combines 200+ data sources with 5,480+ expert forecasters to deliver probability predictions on climate, pandemics, geopolitics, economic shocks, and AI safety.
Real-time forecasts, AI analysis, and intelligent alerts updating live across 12 global crises.
Watch how the platform detects events, analyzes cascades, and delivers actionable intelligence
Venezuela
US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker
Europe
Major Cyberattack Hits European Power Grid
Southeast Asia
Category 5 Typhoon Makes Landfall in Philippines
Whether you forecast markets, break news, lead enterprises, or solve global challenges—Tier9 delivers actionable intelligence.
From prediction markets to policy engines—a comprehensive platform for every intelligence need.
45+ academic institutions, 12+ government agencies, and 100+ enterprises use Tier9 for risk intelligence.
Active Forecasts
Global Forecasters
Countries Covered
Accuracy Score
Get forecasts and analysis specific to your country, region, or city. Our data adapts to local contexts, regulations, and risk factors.
Local economic indicators, political events, and regulatory changes tailored to your market.
Analysis and reports available in 12 languages with local terminology and context.
Understand how global events cascade into local impacts across your operating regions.
Evidence-based predictions on humanity's greatest problems, localized to your region.
Simple, structured forecasting that turns uncertainty into actionable insights.
Define what you want to forecast
5,480+ experts make predictions
Auto-resolve with hard data sources
Make better decisions with certainty
Everything you need to know about Tier9 forecasting.
Tier9 is a forecasting platform that combines crowdsourced human judgment with AI analysis to generate probability estimates for important questions about climate, health, geopolitics, and more.
We use the Brier score, the gold standard for probabilistic accuracy. Scores range from 0 (perfect) to 1 (worst), with 0.25 being random guessing. As questions resolve, we'll publish platform-wide accuracy metrics.
Tier9 covers six main domains: Climate & Disasters, Public Health & Pandemics, Geopolitics & Policy, Scientific Replication, Economy & Society, and Technology & Infrastructure.
Yes, Tier9 offers a free Public Hub where anyone can access public forecasts, submit predictions, and track their accuracy. Pro and Teams plans offer additional features like AI analysis and private workspaces.
Unlike prediction markets that use trading mechanisms, Tier9 uses proper scoring rules (Brier scores) to incentivize honest probability estimates. This approach is designed to produce well-calibrated forecasts.
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