Tier9 is an AI-powered forecasting platform that combines crowdsourced human expertise with machine learning to generate accurate probability forecasts for global events. The platform covers climate risk, pandemic preparedness, geopolitical events, scientific replication, and infrastructure resilience.

How does Tier9 forecasting work?

Tier9 works by aggregating forecasts from trained human forecasters and AI models. Each forecast is weighted by historical accuracy (Brier score). The platform uses ensemble methods to combine predictions, providing probability estimates with confidence intervals. Users can track forecast changes over time and receive alerts when probabilities cross critical thresholds.

Tier9 serves enterprises (supply chain risk, market disruption), governments (policy planning, crisis preparedness), non-profits (funding landscape, program planning), academics (research forecasting, collaboration), and individuals (personal planning, civic engagement).

How accurate are Tier9 forecasts?

Tier9 forecasters achieve an average Brier score of 0.18, outperforming both individual experts (0.25) and simple AI models (0.22). The platform's ensemble approach combines the best of human judgment with AI pattern recognition.

How much does Tier9 cost?

Tier9 offers a free tier with basic access, Pro ($29/month) for individuals, Teams ($79/month) for organizations, and Enterprise (custom pricing) for large deployments.

Public Forecasts

Will City A experience at least one 100-year flood by 2030?

Will influenza hospitalizations in the US exceed 400,000 during the 2025-26 season?

Will the 'ego depletion' effect replicate in the Many Labs 4 follow-up?

Will Texas experience a statewide grid emergency (ERCOT Level 3) in summer 2025?

Will AI/ML skills remain in the top 5 most in-demand tech skills by 2030?

Will global average temperature exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2030?

Will a new H5N1 variant cause at least 1,000 confirmed human cases globally by 2027?

Will commercial fusion energy be demonstrated (Q>10) before 2035?

Will there be a new UN Security Council permanent member by 2030?

Will a major new international climate treaty be signed by 2028?

Will NATO expand to include at least one new member by 2027?

Will the US experience a recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline) by end of 2026?

Will global inflation (median across G20) fall below 3% by end of 2025?

Will a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) be adopted by a G7 nation by 2027?

Will global internet penetration exceed 75% by 2028?

Will remote work remain above 25% of US workforce by 2030?

Will global fertility rate fall below 2.0 by 2030?

Will the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season have 20+ named storms?

Will CDC recommend updated COVID boosters for fall 2024?

Will GPT-5 be released by October 2024?

Will California implement new EV charging mandates in 2024?