How It Works
A simple, structured approach to turning collective intelligence into actionable probabilities.
See the Difference Good Questions Make
Toggle between a well-designed and poorly-designed question to see why specificity matters.
"Will the US CPI inflation rate exceed 3.0% year-over-year in December 2025?"
Watch Crowd Wisdom in Action
Adjust individual forecasts and see how different aggregation methods produce different consensus values.
Calculate Your Brier Score
Make a forecast, then see how it would be scored when the outcome is revealed.
Question: "Will it rain tomorrow?"
Your forecast that YES, it will rain
The 5-Step Process
Ask better questions
Define measurable outcomes with clear resolution criteria. Good forecasting starts with well-specified questions that tie directly to real decisions.
- Frame questions with specific, verifiable outcomes
- Set clear resolution dates and data sources
- Connect questions to real organizational decisions
Invite forecasters
Staff, experts, and public users join with play-money points. Build your forecasting community with the right mix of internal expertise and external perspectives.
- Invite internal team members and domain experts
- Open questions to the public crowd for diverse perspectives
- Use play-money incentives to encourage participation
Aggregate beliefs
A simple market-making mechanism or scoring rule turns individual forecasts into consensus probabilities that update in real time.
- Watch probabilities update as forecasters submit predictions
- See how consensus shifts with new information
- Track which forecasters have the best track records
Act on probabilities
Use consensus forecasts to trigger contingency plans, inform policy decisions, and allocate resources more effectively.
- Set probability thresholds for action (e.g., 'if risk > 40%, activate plan')
- Incorporate forecasts into decision-making frameworks
- Monitor how probabilities evolve over time
Learn and improve
After resolution, the system scores forecasts and updates calibration stats. See who was accurate and how to improve future forecasting.
- Automatic Brier scoring for resolved questions
- Calibration charts show forecast accuracy over time
- Leaderboards reward consistent accuracy
Ready to start forecasting?
Join our public hub to make your first predictions. Upgrade for private workspaces when you're ready.