Tier9

Use Cases

From climate adaptation to workforce planning, Tier9 helps organizations navigate uncertainty across the domains that matter most.

Built on peer-reviewed forecasting research from Good Judgment, Metaculus, and BIS
Climate Risk & Adaptation
Forecast flood frequency, heatwaves, and damage reduction from adaptation projects.
Research Foundation

Project Viridis by the Bank for International Settlements provides banking system-wide views of financed emissions and maps geographical distribution to assess transition risk exposure from carbon pricing policies.

14 days
Average lead time
87%
Forecast accuracy
2,400+
Active questions

Capabilities

  • Forecast extreme weather event probabilities with 14-day advance warning
  • Compare scenarios with and without policy interventions using NGFS pathways
  • Track sea level rise and coastal flooding risks with ISS ESG Scenario Analysis
  • Assess wildfire season severity using AI-powered predictive maintenance models
  • Generate ESG disclosure-ready reports aligned with TCFD frameworks

Example Questions

Will City A experience at least one 100-year flood by 2030?

What is the probability that global temperatures rise 2°C by 2050?

Will the proposed sea wall reduce flood damage by 50%?

Will California experience a Category 5 wildfire season in 2025?

Pandemics & Biosecurity
Early warning for outbreaks, health system overload, and intervention success.
Research Foundation

AI-enhanced early warning systems process epidemiological, web, climate, and wastewater data to detect patterns and anomalies, leading to earlier outbreak detection and improved prediction accuracy.

21 days
Early warning lead time
82%
Outbreak prediction accuracy
340+
Health systems monitored

Capabilities

  • Track emerging infectious disease spread using real-time OSINT collection
  • Forecast hospital capacity and ICU needs with 14-day advance warning
  • Assess vaccine efficacy and rollout timelines using clinical trial data
  • Model intervention effectiveness with policy playbook automation
  • Integrate with wastewater surveillance and syndromic reporting systems

Example Questions

Will influenza hospitalizations exceed 50,000 this winter?

What is the probability of a new pandemic declaration by 2028?

Will the new vaccine reach 70% coverage in 6 months?

Will RSV surge overwhelm pediatric ICU capacity in Q4?

Geopolitics & International Relations
Track treaty negotiations, alliance changes, and international policy shifts.
Research Foundation

Platforms like Silobreaker provide geopolitical forecasting based on probabilistic modeling with real-time OSINT collection in 21 languages, enabling comprehensive region and event monitoring.

195
Countries monitored
21
Languages analyzed
76%
Event prediction accuracy

Capabilities

  • Forecast international treaty outcomes using expert consensus
  • Track alliance formation and dissolution with real-time alerting
  • Assess diplomatic negotiation success probability
  • Model sanctions effectiveness and policy impacts
  • Monitor country-specific risk scoring across 195 nations

Example Questions

Will there be a new UN Security Council permanent member by 2030?

Will a major new climate treaty be signed by 2028?

What is the probability of NATO expansion by 2027?

Will EU-China trade relations improve or deteriorate by 2026?

Economy & Monetary Policy
Forecast recessions, inflation trends, and financial system changes.
Research Foundation

Project Gaia leverages generative AI and large language models to facilitate analysis of climate-related financial risks, automating information extraction for climate-related indicators at scale.

42
Economies tracked
6 months
Recession prediction lead time
79%
Policy accuracy

Capabilities

  • Predict recession timing and severity with ensemble AI models
  • Track inflation trajectories across 40+ economies
  • Assess central bank policy changes with real-time sentiment analysis
  • Model digital currency adoption timelines
  • Generate investor-grade risk reports aligned with regulatory frameworks

Example Questions

Will the US experience a recession by end of 2026?

Will global inflation fall below 3% by end of 2025?

Will a G7 nation launch a retail CBDC by 2027?

Will the Fed cut rates below 3% in 2025?

Society & Demographics
Predict workforce changes, population trends, and social transformations.
Research Foundation

Predictive analytics in social trends helps identify workforce transitions, technology adoption patterns, and demographic shifts that impact long-term planning for governments and enterprises.

81%
Trend accuracy
120+
Demographic models
85
Countries covered

Capabilities

  • Forecast demographic transitions and fertility rates
  • Track workforce composition changes with AI automation impact
  • Assess technology adoption patterns across generations
  • Model urbanization and migration trends
  • Predict social sentiment shifts on key policy issues

Example Questions

Will global internet penetration exceed 75% by 2028?

Will remote work remain above 25% of US workforce by 2030?

Will global fertility rate fall below 2.0 by 2030?

Will AI adoption reach 50% of knowledge workers by 2027?

Scientific Replication & Research Portfolios
Forecast which studies will replicate and which programs will hit milestones.
Research Foundation

Prediction markets correctly forecasted replication outcomes for 76 out of 104 studies. Research shows expert forecasters outperform random chance and traditional surveys in predicting which findings will hold up.

73%
Replication prediction accuracy
15,000+
Studies analyzed
45
Research domains

Capabilities

  • Predict study replication outcomes using expert researcher networks
  • Track clinical trial success probabilities across phases
  • Assess research grant portfolio risk for foundations
  • Forecast technology development milestones
  • Identify high-risk studies before costly replication attempts

Example Questions

Will the landmark psychology study X replicate?

What is the probability that drug Y passes Phase 3 trials?

Will fusion energy reach commercial viability by 2035?

Will this AI research claim generalize to production systems?

Infrastructure Reliability
Predict outages, failures, and inspection outcomes for grids, transit, and bridges.
Research Foundation

AI-powered predictive maintenance using IoT sensors and machine learning can prevent 15% of projected natural disaster losses to power grids, water systems, and transportation—$70 billion in savings worldwide by 2050.

50,000+
Assets monitored
85%
Failure prediction accuracy
$2.3M
Avg savings per intervention

Capabilities

  • Forecast power grid reliability and outage risks with sensor integration
  • Predict transit system performance using Prognostics & Health Management
  • Assess bridge and road maintenance needs with Remaining Useful Life models
  • Model supply chain disruption probabilities
  • Enable condition-based maintenance interventions before failures occur

Example Questions

Will the power grid experience a major outage this summer?

What is the probability that Bridge X requires emergency repairs?

Will the new transit line open on schedule?

Will water main breaks exceed historical average this year?

Education & Workforce Futures
Forecast which skills, credentials, and programs will matter in 3–10 years.
Research Foundation

AI forecasting tools analyze student data to improve retention and academic success. Predictive analytics helps institutions refine policies, curricula, and student services for continuous improvement.

2,500+
Skills tracked
4,000+
Institutions analyzed
10 years
Forecast horizon

Capabilities

  • Predict in-demand skills and occupations 5-10 years out
  • Forecast education program outcomes and employment rates
  • Assess workforce transition needs for reskilling programs
  • Model automation impact on job markets by sector
  • Track credential value and ROI across institutions

Example Questions

Will AI/ML skills remain in top 5 demand by 2030?

What percentage of current jobs will be automated by 2035?

Will coding bootcamps maintain employment rates above 70%?

Will demand for healthcare workers outpace supply by 2028?

Why These Domains?

We focus on questions where forecasting demonstrably improves decisions—and where the stakes are high enough to warrant rigorous analysis.

Measurable Outcomes

Every question has clear resolution criteria. We don't forecast vague outcomes—we forecast specific, verifiable events with defined timelines.

High-Stakes Decisions

These domains involve resource allocation, policy choices, and strategic planning where better forecasts translate directly to better outcomes.

Expert Networks

Each domain has dedicated forecaster networks with subject-matter expertise, ensuring predictions are informed by deep domain knowledge.

Have a specific use case in mind?

Start exploring with our free public hub, or see our plans for private workspaces.