Top Geopolitical Risks to Watch in 2025

Introduction

The geopolitical landscape in 2025 presents unprecedented uncertainties. From Taiwan Strait tensions to Middle East escalation, our forecasting platform has been tracking 150+ critical questions.

Key Risks

Taiwan Strait Escalation

Current forecast: 62% probability of military exercises leading to trade disruption. Key signals: Chinese military drills frequency, US strategic ambiguity messaging, Taiwan's defense spending.

Middle East Expansion

Forecasted at 48% probability of major escalation. Drivers: Iranian nuclear program developments, Houthi capabilities, regional proxy wars.

Methodology

These forecasts are generated using Tier9's ensemble methodology combining expert judgment, AI analysis, and crowd intelligence across 10,000+ forecasters.