Tier9
Transparent Methodology

Our Data Sources

Tier9 combines real-time prediction market data with authoritative government, academic, and institutional sources to power accurate, transparent forecasts.

34
Total Sources
2
Prediction Markets
6
Government
9
International
32
Primary Sources

Prediction Markets: Our Primary Signal

Real-time

Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of thousands of traders with real money at stake. Research shows they consistently outperform expert forecasts and polls. We integrate data from the leading platforms to provide the most accurate real-time probability estimates.

PM
Polymarket
Largest prediction market by volume
$1B+ volume
K
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated US exchange
Regulated
Primary Source
Polymarket
Polymarket

Leading prediction market platform with real-money markets on politics, economics, science, and current events. Provides crowd-aggregated probability estimates with significant liquidity.

Update frequency:Real-time
API Available
Market pricesTrading volumeOrder booksHistorical pricesResolution data

Polymarket. Real-time prediction market data.

Primary Source
Kalshi
Kalshi Inc.

CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Offers event contracts on economics, politics, climate, and more with institutional-grade data.

Update frequency:Real-time
API Available
Market pricesOrder booksCandlestick dataTrade historySeries data

Kalshi Inc. Regulated event contracts market data.

Primary Source
Metaculus
Metaculus Inc.

Community forecasting platform with calibrated forecasters making predictions on science, technology, and world events. Known for long-range forecasting accuracy.

Update frequency:Continuous
API Available
Community predictionsForecaster calibrationQuestion resolutionHistorical accuracy

Metaculus. Community forecasting platform.

Secondary Source
Manifold Markets
Manifold Markets

Play-money prediction market platform with user-created markets on any topic. Provides high volume of diverse forecasts.

Update frequency:Real-time
API Available
Market pricesUser predictionsCommentsResolution history

Manifold Markets. User-generated prediction markets.

Our Data Quality Standards

Every data source in our system meets strict criteria for reliability, transparency, and accessibility.

Primary Sources

Data directly from collecting organizations, not aggregators

Published Methodology

Transparent collection and processing methods

API Access

Programmatic access for real-time updates

Regular Updates

Continuous monitoring and data refresh

Access Our Data

Teams and Enterprise plans include API access to our aggregated prediction market and authoritative data feeds.