Our Data Sources
Tier9 combines real-time prediction market data with authoritative government, academic, and institutional sources to power accurate, transparent forecasts.
Prediction Markets: Our Primary Signal
Real-timePrediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of thousands of traders with real money at stake. Research shows they consistently outperform expert forecasts and polls. We integrate data from the leading platforms to provide the most accurate real-time probability estimates.
Leading prediction market platform with real-money markets on politics, economics, science, and current events. Provides crowd-aggregated probability estimates with significant liquidity.
Polymarket. Real-time prediction market data.
CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the US. Offers event contracts on economics, politics, climate, and more with institutional-grade data.
Kalshi Inc. Regulated event contracts market data.
Community forecasting platform with calibrated forecasters making predictions on science, technology, and world events. Known for long-range forecasting accuracy.
Metaculus. Community forecasting platform.
Play-money prediction market platform with user-created markets on any topic. Provides high volume of diverse forecasts.
Manifold Markets. User-generated prediction markets.
Our Data Quality Standards
Every data source in our system meets strict criteria for reliability, transparency, and accessibility.
Primary Sources
Data directly from collecting organizations, not aggregators
Published Methodology
Transparent collection and processing methods
API Access
Programmatic access for real-time updates
Regular Updates
Continuous monitoring and data refresh
Access Our Data
Teams and Enterprise plans include API access to our aggregated prediction market and authoritative data feeds.