Our Methodology
Tier9 is built on decades of research in superforecasting, prediction markets, and decision science. Here's how we turn uncertainty into actionable intelligence.
AI-Human Ensemble in Action
Adjust the weights to see how different combinations affect the ensemble forecast.
Extremization: Reducing Groupthink
When forecasters share information, the crowd consensus often becomes too moderate. Extremization corrects for this.
Why Extremize?
Research from the Good Judgment Project shows that when forecasters discuss and share information, they often converge toward moderate probabilities. Extremization pushes forecasts away from 50% to account for this shared information effect, improving accuracy.
Core Principles
Our approach is grounded in peer-reviewed research from the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), Good Judgment Project, and leading academic institutions.
Unlike some platforms that use improper scoring, Tier9 uses the Brier score—a strictly proper scoring rule that incentivizes honest probability reporting.
Brier Score = (forecast - outcome)²
0 = perfect prediction, 1 = worst possible prediction
Research shows that calibration training can reduce overconfidence and improve forecast accuracy. Our platform provides real-time calibration feedback.
- Interactive calibration charts
- Personalized AI coaching
- Benchmark comparisons
We combine multiple aggregation methods to extract signal from diverse forecaster populations:
- Median: Robust to outliers
- Weighted average: Track record based
- Extremized mean: Reduces groupthink
We combine human forecasts with AI model predictions to create ensemble forecasts that outperform either alone:
Experience Our Methodology
See how our forecasting system works with real questions and live probabilities.