Track Records
Forecaster Leaderboard
Build your track record by making forecasts on real questions. Rankings are based on Brier scores across resolved questions.
Preview
How the Leaderboard Will Work
This is an example of what the leaderboard will look like once we have enough resolved questions.
Interactive Demo
See what the leaderboard will look like with example data
How Rankings Work
Transparent, merit-based scoring
Ranking Criteria
- Brier Score: The gold standard for measuring probabilistic accuracy (lower is better, 0 is perfect, 0.25 is random guessing)
- Minimum Threshold: Forecasters need 20+ resolved forecasts to appear on the leaderboard
- Domain Rankings: Separate leaderboards for climate, health, geopolitics, economy, science, and society
- Superforecaster Status: Awarded to forecasters with Brier scores below 0.15 over 100+ forecasts
AI Model Benchmarks
We track AI model performance to compare human and machine forecasting:
- • Claude, GPT, Gemini, and other frontier models
- • Human-AI ensemble combinations
- • Domain-specific model performance
Start Building Your Track Record
Be among the first forecasters on the platform. Your predictions will be scored and tracked as questions resolve.
Start Forecasting