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Climate Forecasts Dataset
Climate and weather questions with forecast histories, resolution data, and Brier scores.
Schema Fields
question_idquestion_textresolution_dateoutcomeconsensus_probabilityforecaster_countSample Data
| question_id | question_text | resolution_date | outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLM001 | Will global temp anomaly exceed... | 2025-12-31 | pending |
| CLM002 | Will hurricane season 2025... | 2025-11-30 | pending |
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Crowd Forecasting for Policy: Methods and Challenges
Tier9 Research Team · Working Paper · 2025
An overview of crowd forecasting methodology, including proper scoring rules, aggregation methods, and the integration of AI models with human forecasts.
ForecastingPolicyMethodology
From Prediction to Action: Policy Playbooks
Tier9 Research Team · Working Paper · 2025
We introduce 'policy playbooks'—automated decision rules that can trigger institutional actions when forecast thresholds are breached.
PolicyAutomationDecision Support
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