Tier9 is an AI-powered forecasting platform that combines crowdsourced human expertise with machine learning to generate accurate probability forecasts for global events. The platform covers climate risk, pandemic preparedness, geopolitical events, scientific replication, and infrastructure resilience.

How does Tier9 forecasting work?

Tier9 works by aggregating forecasts from trained human forecasters and AI models. Each forecast is weighted by historical accuracy (Brier score). The platform uses ensemble methods to combine predictions, providing probability estimates with confidence intervals. Users can track forecast changes over time and receive alerts when probabilities cross critical thresholds.

Tier9 serves enterprises (supply chain risk, market disruption), governments (policy planning, crisis preparedness), non-profits (funding landscape, program planning), academics (research forecasting, collaboration), and individuals (personal planning, civic engagement).

How accurate are Tier9 forecasts?

Tier9 forecasters achieve an average Brier score of 0.18, outperforming both individual experts (0.25) and simple AI models (0.22). The platform's ensemble approach combines the best of human judgment with AI pattern recognition.

How much does Tier9 cost?

Tier9 offers a free tier with basic access, Pro ($29/month) for individuals, Teams ($79/month) for organizations, and Enterprise (custom pricing) for large deployments.

For Academic Research

Rigorous Forecasting for Academic Research

Research-grade forecasting infrastructure built on methods proven in IARPA tournaments. Export data, track calibration, and publish peer-reviewed findings.

Start Research Project Contact Academic Sales

IARPA Validated Methods

35-72% More Accurate Than Competitors

30% Better Than Intelligence Analysts

Free Preview - Verified Research Data

IARPA ACE Tournament Results

Explore verified data from the landmark IARPA-funded forecasting tournament that proved crowds can beat intelligence analysts. Led by Dr. Philip Tetlock and Dr. Barbara Mellers.

Source: Good Judgment Inc.

35-72%

More Accurate vs Teams

Verified by IARPA

30%

Better Than Intel Analysts

With Classified Access

0.166

Superforecaster Brier

vs 0.259 Crowd

10+

Years of Data

500+ Questions

Historical Tournament Questions

Real questions from IARPA forecasting tournaments

GeopoliticsResolved: Yes

Will Russia officially annex additional Ukrainian territory by [date]?

Final Consensus Probability78%

1,247

Forecasters

0.14

Brier Score

Superforecaster Performance

Correctly predicted 3 weeks before event

Pro Feature

Access More Research Institutions

Subscribe to unlock forecasting data from leading think tanks and research institutions worldwide.

MIT Security Studies Program

Technology & Security

Questions

234

Forecasters

0.19

Brier

Oxford Future of Humanity Institute

Existential Risk

Questions

312

Forecasters

0.21

Brier

RAND Corporation

Defense & Policy

Questions

456

Forecasters

0.18

Brier

Brookings Institution

Economic Policy

Questions

178

Forecasters

0.22

Brier

Unlock All Institutions

Built for Academic Rigor

IRB Compliant

Data collection and storage designed for human subjects research with full audit trails.

Statistical Exports

Export to R, Python, Stata formats with proper variable coding and documentation.

Multi-Institution

Collaborate across universities with role-based access and shared question pools.

Ready to Start Your Research?

Join leading universities using Tier9 for forecasting research. Academic pricing available for qualified institutions.

Start Free Trial Request Academic Pricing

For Academic Research

Rigorous Forecasting for Academic Research

Research-grade forecasting infrastructure built on methods proven in IARPA tournaments. Export data, track calibration, and publish peer-reviewed findings.

Start Research Project Contact Academic Sales

IARPA Validated Methods

35-72% More Accurate Than Competitors

30% Better Than Intelligence Analysts

Free Preview - Verified Research Data

IARPA ACE Tournament Results

Explore verified data from the landmark IARPA-funded forecasting tournament that proved crowds can beat intelligence analysts. Led by Dr. Philip Tetlock and Dr. Barbara Mellers.

Source: Good Judgment Inc.

35-72%

More Accurate vs Teams

Verified by IARPA

30%

Better Than Intel Analysts

With Classified Access

0.166

Superforecaster Brier

vs 0.259 Crowd

10+

Years of Data

500+ Questions

Historical Tournament Questions

Real questions from IARPA forecasting tournaments

GeopoliticsResolved: Yes

Will Russia officially annex additional Ukrainian territory by [date]?

Final Consensus Probability78%

1,247

Forecasters

0.14

Brier Score

Superforecaster Performance

Correctly predicted 3 weeks before event

Pro Feature

Access More Research Institutions

Subscribe to unlock forecasting data from leading think tanks and research institutions worldwide.

MIT Security Studies Program

Technology & Security

Questions

234

Forecasters

0.19

Brier

Oxford Future of Humanity Institute

Existential Risk

Questions

312

Forecasters

0.21

Brier

RAND Corporation

Defense & Policy

Questions

456

Forecasters

0.18

Brier

Brookings Institution

Economic Policy

Questions

178

Forecasters

0.22

Brier

Unlock All Institutions

Built for Academic Rigor

IRB Compliant

Data collection and storage designed for human subjects research with full audit trails.

Statistical Exports

Export to R, Python, Stata formats with proper variable coding and documentation.

Multi-Institution

Collaborate across universities with role-based access and shared question pools.

Ready to Start Your Research?

Join leading universities using Tier9 for forecasting research. Academic pricing available for qualified institutions.

Start Free Trial Request Academic Pricing