Question 1

What is Tier9?

Accepted Answer

Tier9 is an AI-powered forecasting platform that combines crowdsourced human expertise with machine learning to generate accurate probability forecasts for global events. The platform covers climate risk, pandemic preparedness, geopolitical events, scientific replication, and infrastructure resilience.

Question 2

How does Tier9 forecasting work?

Accepted Answer

Tier9 works by aggregating forecasts from trained human forecasters and AI models. Each forecast is weighted by historical accuracy (Brier score). The platform uses ensemble methods to combine predictions, providing probability estimates with confidence intervals. Users can track forecast changes over time and receive alerts when probabilities cross critical thresholds.

Question 3

Who uses Tier9?

Accepted Answer

Tier9 serves enterprises (supply chain risk, market disruption), governments (policy planning, crisis preparedness), non-profits (funding landscape, program planning), academics (research forecasting, collaboration), and individuals (personal planning, civic engagement).

Question 4

How accurate are Tier9 forecasts?

Accepted Answer

Tier9 forecasters achieve an average Brier score of 0.18, outperforming both individual experts (0.25) and simple AI models (0.22). The platform's ensemble approach combines the best of human judgment with AI pattern recognition.

Question 5

How much does Tier9 cost?

Accepted Answer

Tier9 offers a free tier with basic access, Pro ($29/month) for individuals, Teams ($79/month) for organizations, and Enterprise (custom pricing) for large deployments.

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